Iran wanted to negotiate with US V-P Vance. They got their wish

WASHINGTON - When J.D. Vance arrives in Islamabad for talks on April 11 with Iranian officials, it will fulfil a wish for Tehran’s remaining leaders, some of whom have quietly sought the US Vice-President to take a lead role in negotiations to end the war, according to several sources familiar with the matter.

Iran views Mr Vance as one of the most anti-war figures in President Donald Trump's inner circle, said one regional official and four people familiar with the talks.

That reputation, long a fixture of his political brand, has led Tehran to believe Mr Vance is the most likely among Mr Trump's close associates to seek a deal in good faith, said the sources, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters.

There is no indication Mr Vance would adopt a more accommodating negotiating stance than any other representative sent by Mr Trump, who has threatened to renew the US bombing campaign if talks fail.

A White House official said it was Mr Trump’s decision alone to send Mr Vance to Pakistan for the talks, and that the president will make the final call about what deal is acceptable.

But the vice-president’s presence - and whether Tehran’s instincts about him are right - will nonetheless be one factor determining whether the first face-to-face talks since the war broke out on Feb 28 have a shot at succeeding.

The stakes are high for Iran and the Trump administration, which is seeking an off-ramp to an unpopular war seven months before competitive midterm elections in November.

Risk and reward for Vance

Mr Vance, an early frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, stands to benefit politically if talks succeed. But he also risks becoming further associated with a foreign quagmire that has killed thousands of civilians and pushed up gas prices and inflation if talks drag on or fail altogether, analysts say.

“If this peace negotiation goes well and the result is one that’s popular, it could help Vance’s image,” said Stephen Wertheim, a historian and senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment. “But I think there’s also some danger for Mr Vance that he becomes more the face of the war.”

Mr Vance will be joined by Mr Trump’s son-in-law, Mr Jared Kushner, and US special envoy Steve Witkoff. Iranian leaders view both men with distrust after previous talks with them on two occasions failed, leading to US strikes, the sources said.

In response to a request for comment, a second White House official denied the Iranians preferred to negotiate with Mr Vance and said no one in his orbit was thinking of the political ramifications of the talks.

“It’s laughable for the mainstream media to buy the clearly coordinated propaganda campaign that Iran wants to negotiate with the vice-president,” the official said.

A third White House official, however, said the Iranians had in fact indicated they wanted Mr Vance to get involved in the talks, but they did not offer a reason.

Departing for Pakistan on the morning of April 10, Mr Vance said he would negotiate in good faith - but only if Iran did the same.

“We’re certainly willing to extend the open hand,” Mr Vance said.

New negotiators, same challenge

Among those who have advocated for Mr Vance to take a leading role, according to a senior regional diplomat, was Iranian parliamentary Speaker Mohammed Bager Qalibaf, who will be representing Iran in Islamabad alongside Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.

Some White House officials had themselves in recent weeks identified Mr Qalibaf as a preferred interlocutor, sensing that the former Tehran mayor had a pragmatic streak that could make him amenable to seeking a deal, two sources familiar with administration discussions said.

The regional diplomat said from Tehran’s perspective, Mr Vance brought more political weight as a top-ranking elected official than Mr Witkoff and Mr Kushner.

Both sides will be dealing with their preferred counterparties.

But that is perhaps one of the only reasons for optimism going into the April 11 talks, analysts say, with the publicly stated US and Iranian positions miles apart.

For instance, the US has said further uranium enrichment by Iran is a non-starter, while Iran has not publicly indicated it has any interest in abandoning its nuclear programme.

The mood inside the White House is one of scepticism, another senior White House official said. Mr Trump appears in recent conversations with advisers to have conceded the Strait of Hormuz, a hub of global commerce that remains effectively shut despite a fragile ceasefire, is unlikely to completely reopen soon, the official said. Mr Trump said in a social media post on April 9 that oil would be flowing again quickly, without elaborating.

That wide gulf between the parties raises questions about whether Mr Vance has been handed an opportunity - or a poisoned chalice.

Senior White House officials have been eager to portray Mr Vance as a central player in talks with Iran.

“Vice-President Vance has played a very significant and a key role in this since the very beginning,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at an April 8 press conference. “He’s been involved in all of these discussions.”

Mr Vance himself has been more circumspect.

“I mean, you know, my key role was I sat on the phone a lot,” he said on April 8 while travelling in Hungary. “I answered a lot of phone calls. I made a lot of phone calls.”

Asked if Iran had specifically requested that he join the talks, Mr Vance responded: “I don’t know that. I would be surprised if that was true.” REUTERS